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SoCal Housing Market Sales Plunge 15%

Image of negative real estate chart.

By Editor | Porter Ranch

The latest housing market data shows Southern California’s housing market conditions continue to pull-back from its highs, with sales plunging double-digits from the previous year.

According to the data from the California Association of REALTORS (R), from January 2018 to January 2019, real estate transaction sales have declined by 15.1% year-to-year. When comparing month-to-month sales data, the contraction was slightly higher at 16.3%.

Last month, actual sales numbers declined to 12,665, which are the lowest sales seen since January 2008.

Image shows a graph of real esate sales from Jan. 2010 to Jan. 2019, courtesty of CAR.org

When examining sales by price segment, a clearer picture emerges where the largest impact in slower sales are happening. Homes priced between $500,000 and $749,000 fell 25%, the largest decline of all the segments from $0 to over 2-million dollars.

Image shows a graph of price decline by market segment, courtesty of CAR.org

As this well-publicized slowdown continues, the available inventory of homes on the market has increased. Current home inventory is at the highest level seen in over three years.

Prices have also felt the impact of a market pullback. Median home prices dropped almost $32,000 from its highest peak in June.

So, sellers are not getting their list price. The list price homeowners agree to list their home at with their real estate agent are coming up short. The sales-price-to-list-price hit its lowest level since 2015, an indicator that sellers are getting less than the list price they are seeking when the home is listed on the open real estate market. On average sellers are getting 97.3% of their asking price. Homeowners who initially list their home at $300,000, for example, wait twice as long for an accepted offer and get their sold sign for $8, 100 less than their original asking price.

Image shows a graph of sales-list-price ratio from Jan. 2007 to Jan. 2019, courtesty of CAR.org

“Days on Market have doubled since last year.”

Even with low mortgage interest rates currently at an average APR of 4.530% for a 30-year fixed loan, according to bankrate.com, home buyers appear to be sitting on the sidelines longer. The number of days a home stays on the market has increased 43% from May of 2018 when homes were sold in only 15-20 days.

Image shows a graph of the average days-on-market for homes from Jan. 2005 to Jan. 2019, courtesty of CAR.org

Today, sellers must sit tight a bit longer to locate a buyer to purchase their home. As of January 2019, “Days On Market” data shows that sellers are waiting as many as 37 days before selling their home. The last time that the days-on-market was above 30 days was between January and March 2017, which potentially means having more open houses and more visitors coming through their active property listing.  

What do you think, will the real estate market continue its downward trend in 2019 or will it do better this coming spring and summer?  

Share your opinion and let us know where you think the real estate market is headed this spring and summer.

What do you think?

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Written by Porter Ranch

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